All is not gold that glitters." -- Old Russian proverb
Up to 100% mortgage with no money down. Does that offer sound familiar?
What is the first thing it brings to your mind? Florida condos? A flip-that-house TV show? Or the near failure of some of the largest U.S. lenders and the Federal Reserve's bailout of Wall Street?
After the shock waves the subprime fiasco sent throughout the world economy, you probably wouldn't expect to see that slogan repeated en masse in the U.S. for quite a while. But here comes the interesting part. I was shocked to see an advertisement like this in an airport of one of the four largest developing countries in the world: Russia.
Through my job, I have been able to observe firsthand the tremendous changes in Russia over the past few years. I have also made handsome profits from investing in some of the companies there.
But all good things come to an end, and this advertisement in a Moscow airport last fall offered an indication that the end of the phenomenal run of Russian equities was not too far away.
Dark side of the boom
I covered this topic on my blog, The Skeptical Capitalist, and exited some of the key names before they crashed. With all the attention Chinese and Brazilian markets have received, it might come as a surprise that most of best-performing mutual funds of the past five years were tied to Eastern Europe.
Russia has been the major driving force behind this boom. The ING Russia (LETRX) fund has earned compounded annual returns of more than 35% over the past five years. And one might say they have been justified. Corporate profits are growing for most companies by solid double-digit numbers. Gross domestic profit is expanding in high single digits. And headlines of Russian billionaires buying up real estate in London and setting records on Christie's auctions are more frequent than reports on new Britney meltdowns.
But there is a dark side behind this boom. The Russian economy is showing significant signs of the illness that has been called "Dutch disease." Its symptoms include near-complete crowding out of investments in manufacturing and other productive export-oriented sectors by to the unsustainable trend of a strengthening currency driven by excess petrodollars. Real-estate prices in central Moscow are higher than those in 99% of the largest cities in the world, and this in a country with a GDP per capita just one-fourth that of the United States.
Significant inflationary pressures are becoming more visible every day, starting with the headline inflation rate of 15%. Salaries are growing at double-digit rates, making even some of the most-promising industries, like high technology, uncompetitive very rapidly.
Combined with near-complete nationalization of the main driver of the boom, the oil and gas sector, investors in the private sector have plenty to fear. With so much capital flowing into less-productive government-driven sectors and inflation inhibiting the long-term success of the many of the other most-promising export-oriented investments, it is hard to see how the Russian economy could avoid a meltdown if oil prices continue to decline significantly.
One might say that given that oil and natural-gas prices are still much higher than a year ago, Russia will continue to be a great place to invest. With a trailing price-earnings ratio under 10, Russian stocks certainly don't look expensive on the surface. But remember that commodity producers account for a huge share of profits, and thus the Russian market's P/E could rapidly swing into double digits once the double whammy of declining commodity revenues and rampant inflation hits next year.
Add to that political instability, and the recent slaughter in Russian equities is not all surprising. What's more, it could very well continue for a while.

Can Russia handle a crisis?
Don't get me wrong: I am not trying to predict that the Russian economy is going to crash and go into oblivion in the next few years. But I am definitely worried that if the highly flexible U.S. economy has had troubles dealing with the subprime fallout, the Russian economy might not be able to withstand a crisis quite as easily, when (not if) it occurs.
Fed chief Ben Bernanke's rate cuts and the oil boom certainly benefited Russia more than they did the U.S. in the short term. But however shiny and promising some Russian companies might look today, they are less likely to look as good tomorrow, after the effects of the commodity bubble starts to wear off.
I intentionally did not want to spend time discussing the political ramifications of the Georgian/Russian conflict because it likely won't have much impact on stock prices, as Jon Markman noted in this article.
Does this mean every Russian stock is a sell today? No, I certainly don't think so. But it will certainly take a lot more effort to pick the right ones. Feel free to visit my blog frequently, where I will cover some of my best Russian ideas over the next few weeks.



Archive Comments (2)
The link to Jon Markman's article doesn't work ... just gives an error screen from InvestorPlace.com ERROR:404
Posted by kozakkk667 August 20, 2008 1:17 PM
Fixed now, thanks
Posted by VY August 20, 2008 2:34 PM