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Why "boring stocks" are getting "cheaper"...

"For fast-acting relief, try slowing down"
Lily Tomlin

It is simply hard to imagine how does anyone, who has anything to do with asset management whether he/she is a trader in a large hedge fund or a risk officer even at "conservatively managed" financial institutions, mange to feel safe and/or secure going to bed every night. The continuing "global deleveraging" process combined with the "consistently" unpredictable flow of "silly" government intervention made the routine "hedging" task virtually impossible... I still don't think that SEC and Co fully realize the real impact their "sporadic" actions (like banning short selling for example) make on activities of the same companies they are supposedly "trying to protect"?

Instead of identifying and putting in jail the "evil" rumor spreaders responsible for some of the recent turmoil, SEC instead has now virtually outlawed one of the most "vital" functions of normal markets- "fair value/price" discovery by making the "liquidity" the valuation criteria oin the short term... Remember the impact of "hedging mismatches" investment banks reported during the most recent quarter? I think in hindsight, "these" write offs will look tiny and miniscule compared to what's coming...

Remember, very few big players in today's financial world make pure "equity" bets. To the contrary, it won't be at all unusual for a large hedge fund for example to make a short bet on a financial sector and simultaneously go long commodity or currency futures contracts. I wonder if regulators ever even heard about the "law of unintended consequences"- introduction of the massive "unpredictable" externalities like "$700B bailout" or "short selling ban on financials" will lead to completely unpredictable distortions/"blow ups" in other sectors... by changing the rules so drastically in the middle of the "game", they completely disrupted the entire financial "ecosystem" and introduced additional volatility to even the more stable companies in virtually every industry...

Do you think yesterday's $20 jump in the price of crude was a result of supply/demand mismatch? I certainly don't - the answer is likely to be much simpler and we'll probably hear about it in the news quite soon- someone blew up once again in a liquidity crunch triggered by the outrageous volatility... Whether it was a commodity/macro focused hedge fund or an energy trading operation of some utility company we don't yet know, but events like this are not a good thing and usually lead to more fear in the market place, more volatility and thus to lower asset prices...

Same thing with equities- take last week's Thursday-Friday rally for example. Most stocks with sky-high short interest ratio ("usually" an indication of serious problems) reached valuations that seem to defy any logic or common sense. On the other hand, many the more liquid consumer staples companies actually ended two day jump (800 points on the Dow) in the negative territory. Heh? Remember the "quantitative" hedge fund fiasco from last year when multiple long/short funds utilizing similar algorithms where caught in a week long "death spiral" with "shorts" going up and "longs" going down simultaneously?

I believe that last week's price action was even more unexpected and thus more unpredictable to managers/computers than that of last summer, which in turn means that massive failures of numerous hedge funds around the globe are once again almost inevitable...The resulting liquidations (investor redemption requests are probably also rolling in droves as we speak) will probably bring on another wave of forced sales of "higher" quality assets as they are more likely to be liquid than the "junky" ones. So it shouldn't be surprising that the former momentum/quant darlings like POT, FCX, MOS and "boring" players like PG, INTC, MSFT and KMB are lagging the market so heavily despite a lot of positive news out there...

In my opinion, government's actions so far achieved one objective only- distortion of "true" asset values and thus likely made the eventual recovery process longer than it would have otherwise been... Fortunately my "real life" portfolio has missed 95% of the "action" during the last several weeks, and I am now finding numerous bargains not only in the preferred stock arena ( looking at prefs of GS, MS, WB, C, BCS,STI (great resource www.quantumonline.com ) but also for the first time since August considering allocating some serious capital to "good-old" boring players like MSFT, GE, INTC etc...

Stay safe out there, Vad
skepticalcapitalist@gmail.com

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